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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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Global trade redirection: tracking the role of trade diversion from US tariffs in Chinese export developments
Global trade flows experienced significant shifts in 2025 following new US tariffs. After an initial frontloading surge, US imports from China declined sharply, while Chinese exports demonstrated resilience overall, with broad-based growth across destinations outside the United States. Preliminary empirical analysis shows that US tariffs had a strong negative effect on China’s exports to the United States but have resulted in limited trade diversion to other markets so far. Trade diversion effects are found to be concentrated in a narrow set of products and destinations, notably countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Africa. Overall, China’s export growth appears to be driven by structural factors, such as rising competitiveness, weak domestic demand and deeper regional supply chain integration, rather than large-scale tariff-induced trade diversion.
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The fundamental drivers of recent developments in euro area housing investment
Euro area housing investment has declined steadily in recent years but appears to have bottomed out at the end of 2024. This box analyses the fundamental drivers of recent housing investment dynamics using a structural empirical model. The results indicate that weak broader macroeconomic conditions and the lagged effects of past monetary policy tightening have weighed on housing investment, although this has been somewhat offset by improving housing-specific demand. Looking ahead, housing investment is expected to gradually recover as demand for housing strengthens, economic growth improves and the effects of monetary policy easing feed through.
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Bayesian inference in IV regressions
It is well known that standard frequentist inference breaks down in IV regressions with weak instruments. Bayesian inference with diffuse priors suffers from the same problem. We show that the issue arises because flat priors on the first-stage coefficients overstate instrument strength. In contrast, inference improves drastically when an uninformative prior is specified directly on the concentration parameter—the key nuisance parameter capturing instrument relevance. The resulting Bayesian credible intervals are asymptotically equivalent to the frequentist confidence intervals based on conditioning approaches, and remain robust to weak instruments.
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Drivers of electricity prices across households and energy-intensive industries and their importance for the EU’s decarbonisation objectives
Electrification is central to the decarbonisation objectives of the EU. Yet, electricity prices remain elevated across the euro area compared with levels observed before the 2021-22 energy crisis, while households pay around twice as much as energy-intensive industries. This box examines the drivers of these differences in the five largest euro area countries. While short-term relief measures such as price caps and tax reductions can ease price pressures, these do not address the underlying drivers of high electricity prices. Moreover, these measures should be devised so as not to weaken decarbonisation incentives for energy-intensive industries.
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A structural model of capital buffer usability
Under which conditions do usability constraints for regulatory capital buffers emerge? To answer this question, we build a non-linear structural banking sector model with a minimum capital requirement that banks are not allowed to breach, and a capital buffer requirement (CBR) that banks can breach but if they do so potential stigma applies. We prove that even very low stigma costs induce large buffer usability constraints, i.e. when faced with losses banks will deleverage significantly to avoid that their capital ratio falls below the CBR. Our findings imply that non-releasble regulatory capital buffers are unlikely to fully achieve their macro stabilisation goal to support aggregate loan supply when the banking system faces losses.
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Overcoming structural barriers to the green transition
This article assesses the state of play for green innovation in the EU and identifies the structural barriers that are constraining the adoption and scaling- up of low-carbon technologies. These include unpriced environmental externalities, knowledge spillovers, limited risk capital markets, regulatory complexity, skills shortages and insufficient enabling infrastructure. The analysis highlights how these structural barriers interact to slow the green transition and raise transition costs. Drawing on recent ECB analysis and insights from corporate earnings calls, this article shows that addressing these obstacles requires a comprehensive policy mix, including carbon pricing, enhanced temporary subsidies, and structural policies that improve the business environment, facilitate the reallocation of resources, and stimulate competition and entrepreneurship.
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Financial stability risks from linkages between banks and the non-bank financial intermediation sector
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Margins as canaries in the coal mine
Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) manage counterparty risk by requiring clearing members to post margins. This paper explores the role of margins as “canaries in the coal mine:” By inducing defaults of fragile counterparties before contract maturity, margin calls enable CCPs to transfer these contracts to other counterparties, thereby preserving risk sharing. Our model reveals a pecking order of CCP risk management tools. When fragility is low, loss sharing among original counterparties suffices. When fragility is high, such that defaults at contract maturity would trigger cascading failures among clearing members, the CCP optimally complements loss sharing with margins. It is optimal to use margins as canaries when the balance sheets of fragile counterparties are severely impaired. Our findings highlight the complementary nature of CCP risk management tools: margins, loss sharing, and counterparty replacement.
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Fiscal monitoring with VARs
We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together with other high-frequency macroeconomic and financial variables, as well as real GDP and the GDP deflator. Our model produces timely monthly density nowcasts of the annual deficit ratio, while governments and official institutions generally only publish their point predictions bi-annually. Based on a database of real-time vintages of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal variables for Italy, we show that the nowcasts of the annual deficit to GDP ratio of our model are similarly or more accurate than those of the European Commission, depending on the month in which the nowcast is produced. Our scenario analysis compares the dynamics of the deficit ratio associated with a monetary and a typical recession, finding a more muted response in the latter case.
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Why is Europe lagging behind in high tech sectors? The role of institutional and regulatory quality
This paper investigates the relationship between institutional and regulatory quality, and high-tech sector investment. Using data from 25 European Union (EU) countries from 2004 to 2019 (extended to 2023 for artificial intelligence-specific analyses), the study examines how institutional governance, labour market regulations, and business regulations influence investments in innovative, high-tech, and artificial intelligence-intensive sectors. The findings reveal that better institutional quality and less burdensome regulations are associated with higher investment shares in innovative, high-tech, and artificial intelligence industries. Raising EU countries’ institutional and regulatory quality to the level of the current EU frontier could raise the share of investment in high-technology sectors by as much as 50%, hence notably narrowing the existent EU-US investment gap. These results highlight the importance of effective governance and efficient regulations in fostering investment, innovation, and therefore long-term productivity growth.
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Climate change, catastrophes, insurance and the macroeconomy
This paper examines the role of insurance in mitigating the adverse macroeconomic effects of climate-related catastrophes. We first develop a stylised theoretical growth model which incorporates a role for natural catastrophes, climate change and insurance. This illustrates how insurance can mitigate the impact of catastrophes and articulates the potential effect of falling insurance coverage as global warming intensifies. The model also provides a basis for our empirical analysis which explores the link between insurance coverage and the macroeconomic impact of catastrophes for a sample of several thousand disaster events across 47 developed and middle income countries between 1996 and 2019. The results confirm that higher insurance coverage is associated with less severe macroeconomic consequences of disasters. With climate-related catastrophes becoming ever more frequent and severe, our findings highlight the importance of developing policies to reduce the climate insurance protection gap.
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ECB staff opinion on the revised European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS)
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Fiscal seigniorage and price level determination in a currency union
I study price level determination in a currency union when some member countries’ government securities earn a convenience yield. These ”convenience assets” generate fiscal seigniorage revenues that, given appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, back the union’s price level, much like primary surpluses and monetary seigniorage do. An exogenous drop in the private-sector demand for convenience assets reduces seigniorage revenues and raises the price level. It also results in a wealth transfer across countries owing to the heterogeneity in convenience yields.
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Money demand by non-financial corporations
We document empirically the money demand by European non-financial corporations by exploiting a unique and brand-new survey on their cash usage in a stress period. We also assess: (i) the relation between cash held and firm size; and (ii) estimate point values of cash holdings and carry out statistical comparisons along the sectoral and country dimensions. First, we find that cash holdings are inversely related to firm size, providing additional evidence that Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) tend to store more cash relative to their larger peers. Second, we find that cash-intensive sectors and” cash-friendly” countries display right-shifted distributions of cash holdings with statistically-significant larger average holdings. We argue that in a low interest rate and low inflation environment cash holdings serve as a store of value for European firms, in particular for SMEs which are more likely to be financially constrained, especially in crisis times.
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Consumer price stickiness in the euro area during an inflation surge
We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010–2019, roughly a four-percentage-point increase; it then fell quickly in 2023 and more slowly in 2024, ending close to its pre-pandemic level. The decline in the frequency of price changes was faster for food and nonenergy industrial goods (NEIG) than for services, where frequencies remained elevated in 2024. The overall frequency rose mainly because there were more price increases, while the magnitude of the average size of the price increases or decreases changed only marginally during the surge. Products with a larger imported-energy cost share responded more strongly, and hazard-rate evidence shows that the probability of price adjustments increases with the gap between actual and optimal prices, consistent with state-dependent pricing and a steepening of the Phillips curve. To illustrate the implications of this state dependence, a macro model suggests that peak inflation would have been almost 1 percentage point lower if the frequency had not responded to the inflation surge.
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