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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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Banking on assumptions? How banks model deposit maturities
How do banks manage the behavioural maturity of non-maturing deposits (NMDs)? Using a rich and confidential dataset, we investigate how banks model deposit maturities based on internal assumptions. Although NMDs are contractually floating-rate liabilities with zero maturity, banks reallocate them across different maturity buckets using models that reflect past customer behaviour. Notably, only 20% of NMDs are treated as having zero maturity, while about 10% are assigned maturities beyond seven years. We assess whether these modelling assumptions align with banks’ deposit structures. Results show that banks with more volatile, interest rate-sensitive, and digitalised deposit bases tend to assign shorter maturities, appropriately reflecting underlying risks. However, during the recent monetary policy tightening, banks with more sensitive NMDs did not shorten assumed maturities or update models. These findings underscore the critical importance of timely and accurate calibration of NMD assumptions to support effective asset-liability management and preserve financial stability.
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Human rights, the climate emergency, and the financial system
On 9 April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) delivered a landmark ruling in Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland. The ruling was handed down together with two further rulings in Duarte Agostinho and others v. Portugal and others, and in Carême v. France. The ruling marked the first time the ECtHR held that insufficient climate action by a state constitutes a violation of human rights under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). While primarily having an impact on Switzerland as a defending State, the ruling is expected to indirectly affect the legal order of the European Union and its institutions. Moreover, the findings of the ECtHR have been reinforced by recent advisory opinions of other international courts and tribunals, in particular the opinion of the International Court of Justice, handed down on 23 July 2025. This paper first recalls the key facts and outcomes from each of the three ECtHR climate rulings and explores the key findings in greater detail. Second, the paper outlines the climate rulings of other international courts and tribunals. Thereafter, the paper explains the relevance of the KlimaSeniorinnen ruling for the Union and its institutions. First, as a matter of substance, the paper explains how the ruling carries lessons for the ambition and implementation of the climate policies of the Union and its Member States. Second, the paper goes on to explore the procedural avenues for litigants to bring an action before the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), to challenge Union policies on the basis of the ECtHR’s ruling. The paper then outlines how the ruling may be relevant to the ECB, and for the national central banks (NCBs) and national competent authorities (NCAs) within the Eurosystem and Single Supervisory Mechanism. Finally, the paper explores how the ruling may be relevant to the financial sector, insofar as it increases the risk of litigation, and risks related to the process of adjustment towards a low-carbon economy (transition risk).
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Survey on credit terms and conditions in euro-denominated securities financing and OTC derivatives markets (SESFOD)
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Main findings from the ECB’s recent contacts with non-financial companies
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 29 September and 9 October 2025, business conditions improved slightly in recent months, but they remained consistent with only modest growth in activity, with the manufacturing sector still weighed down by tariffs, uncertainty and challenges to competitiveness. The employment outlook also remained relatively subdued. Price growth continued to moderate. In recent months this was mainly due to slowing price rises in parts of the services sector, while prices in the manufacturing sector remained stable in a context of weak demand and increasing import competition. Firms remained confident that wage growth would continue slowing.
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The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Fourth quarter of 2025
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Letter from Piero Cipollone to Aurore Lalucq, ECON Chair, on the next phase of the digital euro project
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The euro area bank lending survey - Third quarter of 2025
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Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area - Third quarter of 2025
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Fiscal announcements and households’ beliefs: evidence from the euro area
This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy announcements on household expectations. We document announcements of price-related expansionary fiscal measures in response to the cost-of-living crisis in the four largest euro area economies and exploit the exogenous timing of fiscal actions relative to household survey participation to estimate their causal effects. Following fiscal announcements, households revise their beliefs: inflation perceptions rise, and unemployment perceptions fall. The latter effect persists into short-run unemployment expectations, while inflation expectations remain unchanged and suggest households perceived inflationary pressures as temporary. These results suggest a significant signaling channel of fiscal policy, as fiscal announcements reveal information about the underlying economic conditions and the government’s commitment to stabilization. We rationalize these findings through a general equilibrium New Keynesian model extended with information frictions and an inflation-stabilizing role for fiscal policy. The model isolates the informational content of fiscal policy and shows that belief revisions are consistent with demand-driven dynamics.
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Engin Eroglu, MEP, on the digital euro
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Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach
This paper proposes a unified framework to study the permanent and transitory origins of US economic fluctuations. The model provides a reasonable account of the evolution of the economy in the post-war period and of the recent inflation episode. Overall, it constitutes a comprehensive framework to offer policy guidance and a flexible empirical counterpart to more heavily-parametrized structural models.
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Inflation and monetary policy in medium-sized New Keynesian DSGE models
This chapter of the Research Handbook of Inflation (2025) reviews the evolution and current relevance of medium-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which serve as part of the core analytical framework in central banks and academic macroeconomics. The chapter assesses their capacity to analyse inflation dynamics, monetary transmission mechanisms, and policy interventions. Despite their exclusion of crisis-specific features, canonical models such as Smets and Wouters (2007) continue to explain inflation and output dynamics in the euro area and the US, owing in part to the differentiated effects of cost-push and demand shocks and the mitigating role of monetary policy. The chapter traces advancements in the European Central Bank’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), highlighting extensions that incorporate financial frictions, effective lower bounds, and energy price shocks. These enhancements have strengthened the model’s forecasting performance and interpretative power, especially during periods of unconventional monetary policy and energy-driven inflation. DSGE models are shown to be particularly effective for policy counterfactuals, enabling real-time assessments of policy decisions relative to model-based optimal policy. A robustness analysis under alternative scenarios demonstrates how policy rules can be evaluated through a welfare lens, informing the design of resilient monetary frameworks. Finally, the chapter identifies key modelling challenges exposed by recent inflation episodes and advocates for richer supply-side structures and nonlinear dynamics to improve the models’ capacity to capture complex macroeconomic developments.
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Letter from Piero Cipollone to Aurore Lalucq, ECON Chair, on technical data on financial stability impact of digital euro and assessment of bank investments costs
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Fiscal drag in theory and in practice: a European perspective
This paper presents a comprehensive characterization of “fiscal drag”—the increase in tax revenue that occurs when nominal tax bases grow but nominal parameters of progressive tax legislation are not updated accordingly—across 21 European countries using a microsimulationapproach. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities, showing that the progressivity built in each country’s personal income tax system induces elasticities around 1.7–2 for many countries, indicating a potential for large fiscal drag effects. We unpack these elasticities to show stark heterogeneity in their underlying mechanisms (tax brackets or tax deductions and credits), across income sources (labor, capital, self-employment, public benefits), and across the individual income distribution. Second, we extend the analysis beyond these elasticities to study fiscal drag in practice between 2019 and 2023, incorporating observed income growth and legislative changes. We quantify the actual impact of fiscal drag and the extent to which government policies have offset it, either through indexation or other reforms. Our results provide new insights into the fiscal and distributional effects of fiscal drag in Europe, as well as useful statistics for modeling public finances.
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Capital requirements: a pillar or a burden for bank competitiveness?
This paper examines the relationship between capital requirements, capital ratios and bank competitiveness – measured as profit efficiency. Using data envelopment analysis techniques, profit efficiency scores were estimated for a sample of listed significant institutions directly supervised by the European Central Bank. In calculating the scores, use was made of rich supervisory data on bank-specific characteristics and capital requirements, in addition to macroeconomic variables. The findings revealed that capital requirements do not have a statistically significant effect on profit efficiency. The insignificant relationship also held true when capital requirements were broken down into microprudential and macroprudential requirements. For capital ratios, the relationship with profit efficiency was linearly statistically insignificant, but did display a statistically significant non-linear relationship that followed an inverted U-shape: profit efficiency rose with capital up to a threshold (estimated at a common equity tier 1 ratio of around 18%), after which further increases curbed profit efficiency. These findings were robust to a wide battery of robustness checks, including an extension of the sample to unlisted banks and the use of different efficiency measures and of various methods to control for confounding factors. These results underscore the need for policymakers to ensure that banks remain resilient, maintain strong capital ratios and manage risk well. In addition, they point to the intricate link between bank capital, regulation and competitiveness, contributing to the ongoing debate about the European banking sector’s ability to support economic growth and innovation.
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