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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Giovanni Crosetto, Mr Sergio Berlato, Mr Carlo Ciccioli, Mr Alessandro Ciriani, Ms Elena Donazzan, Mr Carlo Fidanza, Mr Pietro Fiocchi, Mr Alberico Gambino, Ms Chiara Gemma, Mr Paolo Inselvini, Mr Giuseppe Milazzo, Mr Denis Nesci, Mr Michele Picaro, Mr Daniele Polato, Mr Ruggero Razza, Mr Marco Squarta, Mr Francesco Torselli, Mr Francesco Ventola, Ms Mariateresa Vivaldini, MEPs, on asset purchases
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Fabio De Masi, MEP, on the ECB's service providers
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Bas Eickhout, MEP, on central bank reserves
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The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Second quarter of 2025
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Main findings from the ECB’s recent contacts with non-financial companies
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 79 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 17 and 26 March 2025, activity growth was gradually improving, reflecting an incipient recovery in the industrial sector. The employment outlook was also improving slightly but remained relatively flat, as firms continued to focus on efficiency and productivity. Price growth was holding steady at moderate rates, while firms were increasingly confident that wage growth would slow further. Many firms reacted positively to recent announcements regarding increased defence and infrastructure spending, while taking a “wait and see†attitude in relation to pending tariffs.
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Investor sentiment and dynamic connectedness in European markets: insights from the covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict
The primary objective of this study is to explore the dynamic relationships between equity returns or volatility and sentiment factors in European markets during both the periods preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, the COVID-19 itself, and the Russia-Ukraine war. We achieve this by applying the network methodology initially introduced by Diebold & Yilmaz (2014), along with its extensions based on realized measures and generalized forecast error variance decomposition, as proposed by BarunÃk & KÅ™ehlÃk (2018) and Chatziantoniou et al. (2023). Additionally, we investigate how the global sentiment factor influences the overall connectedness index by employing a quantile-on-quantile approach, following the methods outlined by Sim & Zhou (2015) and Bouri et al. (2022). To conduct our analysis, we utilize daily-frequency data encompassing the period from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2023, covering the entirety of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 across six European stock indices. Our primary discovery is the interconnectedness of both returns and sentiment. Furthermore, our resultsindicate that during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine war, there is a notable increase in volatility spillovers among the analyzed stock indices, driven by the heightened interconnectedness between stock market returns.
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The euro area bank lending survey - First quarter of 2025
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Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area - First quarter of 2025
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Do central bank reforms lead to more monetary discipline?
This paper investigates the impact of reforms altering legal central bank independence (CBI) on monetary policy discipline and credibility, two key mechanisms shaping price stability. Using a sample of 155 countries over more than 50 years (1972–2023), we show that reforms improving CBI strengthen monetary discipline and the credibility of central banks. Larger reforms enhance monetary discipline with a lag, achieving their full effect after ten years. Central bank reforms have a greater impact on monetary discipline in countries that have not reversed earlier reforms. CBI reforms have the strongest impact in democratic countries, countries with flexible exchange rates, and those without a monetary policy strategy. The effects of CBI on monetary discipline and credibility are amplified when public debt-to-GDP ratios are high. These findings underscore the crucial role of CBI as a key factor influencing price stability and highlight the risks associated with weakening institutional autonomy.
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Letter from Piero Cipollone to Aurore Lalucq, ECON Chair, on update on the work of the digital euro scheme's Rulebook Development Group
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Interest rate control and the transmission of monetary policy
We study how short-term interest rate volatility affects the transmission of monetary policy. To identify exogenous changes in volatility, we exploit the pronounced heteroskedasticity visible in the time-series of euro area short-term rates over the past two and a half decades. Interacting the exogenous variation in volatility with high-frequency-identified monetary policy shocks, we find that increases in volatility dampen the effects of monetary policy on output and prices. This dampening effect is visible already at the earlier stages of transmission, including in the pricing and volume of bank lending.
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Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction
Word embeddings are vectors of real numbers associated with words, designed to capture semantic and syntactic similarity between the words in a corpus of text. We estimate the word embeddings of the European Central Bank’s introductory statements at monetary policy press conferences by using a simple natural language processing model (Word2Vec), only based on the information and model parameters available as of each press conference. We show that a measure based on such embeddings contributes to improve core inflation forecasts multiple quarters ahead. Other common textual analysis techniques, such as dictionary-based metrics or sentiment metrics do not obtain the same results. The information contained in the embeddings remains valuable for out-of-sample forecasting even after controlling for the central bank inflation forecasts, which are an important input for the introductory statements.
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Geopolitical risk and its implications for macroprudential policy
This article explores the link between geopolitical risk and bank solvency and discusses the potential implications for macroprudential policy. Drawing on 120 years of data, analysis reveals that heightened geopolitical risk has been associated with lower bank capitalisation over the past century. This effect can arise through multiple economic and financial channels, including reduced economic activity, surging inflation, increased sovereign risk, and shifts in capital flows and asset prices. However, the analysis also finds that the impact of geopolitical risk on bank solvency has been non-linear, with major geopolitical risk events having a much stronger effect than less major or more localised geopolitical shocks, with the effect being heterogenous across countries. Macroprudential policy and microprudential supervision play important and complementary roles in ensuring that banks are sufficiently prepared to absorb potential geopolitical shocks. While microprudential supervision ensures that geopolitical risk is factored into capital and liquidity planning, macroprudential capital buffer requirements can be released when shocks materialise, thereby supporting banks in absorbing losses while maintaining the provision of key financial services to the real economy.
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Effects of monetary policy on labor income: the role of the employer
This paper investigates the role of firms in the transmission of monetary policy to individual labor market outcomes, both the intensive and extensive margins. Using German matched employer-employee administrative data, we study the effects of monetary policy shocks on individual employment and labor income conditioning on the firm characteristics. First, we find that the employment of workers in young firms are especially sensitive to monetary policy shocks. Second, wages of workers in large firms react relatively more, with some pronounced asymmetries: differences between large and small firms are more evident during monetary policy easing. The differential wage response is driven by above-median workers and cannot be fully explained by a worker component. Notably, larger firms adjust wages more significantly despite experiencing similar changes in investment and turnover compared to smaller firms. Furthermore, monetary policy tightening disproportionately impacts low-skilled and low-wage earners, while easings amplify inequality due to substantial wage increases for top earners. Overall, the effect of monetary policy on inequalities is however larger in easing periods – driven by a large increase in wages for top earners.
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The impact of regional institutional quality on economic growth and resilience in the EU
This paper investigates the impact of regional institutional quality on economic growth and economic resilience. Using data collected by the Quality of Government Institute, we conduct a two-way fixed effect panel regression model for around 200 European regions during the period 2010 to 2021. Our findings establish a positive relationship between institutional quality and medium-term GDP growth. This effect is more pronounced in regions with low-income per capita, highlighting the importance of asymmetries across European regions. A convergence of regions with low institutional quality to the EU median would increase annual GDP per capita growth by 0.5 percentage points over the medium-term. Additionally, regions with high quality institutions are more resilient to adverse shocks and have a lower incidence of crisis. Our results suggest that regional institutional reforms, such as increasing public sector efficiency or reducing corruption, would spur growth, resilience, and convergence in the European economy.
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