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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Bas Eickhout, MEP, on climate change and financial stability
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Environmental score and bond pricing: it better be good, it better be green
We provide empirical evidence that the pricing of green bonds tends to be highly sophisticated and based on a two-tiered approach. When buying a green bond, investors do not look only at the presence of a green label, but also consider additional characteristics of the bond that involve the environmental score of the issuer and the soundness of the underlying project. By comparing the yields at issuance of green bonds to those of a matched control sample of conventional bonds, our baseline specification identifies a premium of 16 basis points for the green label alone. Furthermore, when the environmental score of the issuer is in the top tercile of the cross-sectional distribution of such an indicator across the analyzed issuers, the greenium nearly doubles. Green certification and periods of heightened climate uncertainty also significantly affect the size of the greenium.
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Financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation
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Understanding the inflation–output relationship across business cycle phases
We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve’s target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important regime-specific asymmetries. The Taylor principle holds across all four regimes. The systematic policy response to the output gap weakens when inflation is below target but output remains above potential, whereas the response to inflation is broadly similar across regimes. The size of monetary policy shocks is significantly larger when inflation exceeds its target. The Phillips curve steepens when inflation exceeds target and output is above potential, while output sensitivity to interest rate changes declines under high inflation and economic slack. This explains why monetary policy shocks are significantly larger in inflationary booms, but transmission becomes less effective when elevated inflation coincides with economic slack.
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Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025
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Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations from 30 July to 4 November 2025
This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods of 2025, from 30Â July to 4Â November 2025.
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Holding on: labour hoarding and firms’ expectations
Firms that have faced adverse shocks to their business activity can decide to either shed labour or hold on to their workforce, i.e. “hoard labourâ€. This choice can be related to expectations about the future business outlook, prices and costs. Evidence suggests that there is a clear link, in particular, between recent labour hoarding decisions taken by firms and their labour cost growth expectations. With regard to the outlook for pricing, firms that have experienced a deterioration in their overall business conditions are also less optimistic about increasing their selling prices.
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The household saving rate revisited: recent dynamics and underlying drivers
This box provides updated evidence on developments in the household saving rate and its recent drivers. It shows that income and consumption have grown at similar rates since mid-2024, stabilising the saving rate at a level well above its pre-pandemic average. Model-based evidence suggests that lower real interest rates and rising real net wealth have increased incentives to consume, but that these effects have not fully offset the fact that savings continue to be supported by strong labour income growth. Complementing this macroeconomic evidence, survey data from the Consumer Expectations Survey suggests that heightened policy-related and individual uncertainty may also have contributed to the persistence of elevated saving.
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From text to trouble: understanding the limits of text-derived trade policy uncertainty measures
Uncertainty surrounding trade policy has become a key factor shaping the investment and production decisions of firms. While text-based measures such as the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) index are widely used to track these developments, their readings can be misinterpreted when treated as direct measures of uncertainty shocks. Keyword-driven co-mentions might, for example, inflate the index in periods of heightened trade tensions. This box introduces an alternative text-based measure, constructed by regressing the raw TPU index on a set of covariates, that can be more reliably incorporated into standard macroeconomic models by removing some of the contamination and offers a clearer view of how trade policy uncertainty affects economic activity.
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Bulgaria adopts the euro
On 1 January 2026 Bulgaria adopted the euro and became the 21st member of the euro area. For the Bulgarian economy this is expected to bring lower transaction and borrowing costs, as well as greater investor confidence. While Bulgaria has made significant progress in achieving convergence towards the euro area, continued reforms will help the country to fully benefit from euro adoption and support a smooth participation within the enlarged euro area.
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Short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity in an uncertain world
This article examines the key challenges for short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity since the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the persistently elevated levels of uncertainty. It details the significant enhancements made to the short-term forecasting models of the ECB as part of a general review aimed at improving their accuracy. It also highlights exploratory work on alternative approaches using advanced machine learning methods, which offer promising avenues to address the complexities of economic forecasting in times of high uncertainty.
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What is the untapped potential of the EU Single Market?
The European Union (EU) Single Market has significantly enhanced economic welfare, competitiveness and resilience by facilitating the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. Its achievements notwithstanding, the Single Market still has untapped potential, as persistent structural barriers hinder deeper integration, particularly in the cross-border trade of goods and services. Using a gravity model, this paper quantifies the economic impact of these barriers. The findings reveal that barriers could be reduced by 8 percentage points for goods and 9 percentage points for services if all EU countries were to achieve the same degree of trade integration as the Netherlands, a country estimated to be one of the most integrated EU Member States. In the long term, this would lead to significant welfare, i.e. real income, gains of up to 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively, compared with a baseline of no further integration. Furthermore, simulation results suggest that a modest 2% reduction in Single Market barriers could offset projected GDP losses from higher US tariffs. The study emphasises that these estimates are conservative and that deeper integration, particularly in the services sector, could unlock even greater economic benefits.
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Private money and public debt. U.S. Stablecoins and the global safe asset channel
This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe assets and the geography of dollar intermediation, stablecoins transform the dynamics of global financial markets, generating new trade-offs, also for the U.S.: even if they widen the dollar’s global footprint and compress U.S. risk-free yields, they entail non-trivial macro-financial costs. Stablecoins dampen the domestic real effects of U.S. monetary policy and increase both U.S. and foreign exposure to cross-country shocks, making a more digital, dollar-centric reserve system less stable. These effects are limited at low adoption levels but rise non-linearly with stablecoin capitalization, reshaping the functioning of the international financial system.
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Navigating credit dynamics: does it matter for firm-level investment? Evidence from AnaCredit
This study investigates how credit supply shocks impact firm-level investment across the euro area using the novel AnaCredit database. Employing the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2018), we decompose loan growth rates into four components: bank-specific, firm-specific, industry-specific, and common shocks. Our findings show that idiosyncratic bank supply shocks significantly affect firm-level investment, particularly among firms that are highly dependent on bank loans. Furthermore, these granular bank-specific shocks explain most of the aggregate loan dynamics. We also find that the effects of bank shocks vary depending on firm characteristics, such as firm size, loan portfolio composition, and reliance on external financing. These results underscore the critical role banks play in shaping investment dynamics, especially under varying economic conditions.
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Has housing regained its allure? Insights from a new survey-based housing Sharpe ratio
Data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey allow the construction of a housing Sharpe ratio, which relates the return on housing investment to its risk. Over time, the housing Sharpe ratio has mostly been driven by house price growth expectations (in excess of a riskless return), with changes in house price uncertainty playing a more limited role. However, varying perceptions of price uncertainty do drive differences in the housing Sharpe ratio across household groups: lower uncertainty explains higher ratios for male, older, wealthier, employed and more financially literate households as well as renters relative to their counterparts. Households living in urban areas also have higher ratios, driven by higher house price expectations. The housing Sharpe ratio has been steadily recovering from its trough in 2023 and points to a further moderate recovery in housing investment in the euro area.
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