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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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The unexpected upside of depreciation: bridging Europe’s income divide
This paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange (FX) shocks on income inequality across 31 European countries from 2003 to 2021. Leveraging a unique database of household-level longitudinal data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and exchange rate data from the Bank of International Settlements, we investigate how currency devaluations and appreciations influence income distribution. Our findings indicate that a 1% currency devaluation decreases income inequality by 15 basis points within one year, while appreciations have the reverse effect. Contrary to previous studies focused on Latin America, which credit reductions in inequality to both labor mobility and union influence, our analysis identifies labor mobility as the primary factor in Europe. Furthermore, we discover that income changes are predominantly driven by variations in income per hour rather than hours worked.
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The central bank’s balance sheet and treasury market disruptions
This paper studies how Treasury market dynamics depend on adjustments to the central bank balance sheet. We introduce a dynamic model of Treasury bonds with traditional and shadow banks. In the model, both Treasury and repo market disruptions arise as a joint consequence of three frictions: (i) balance sheet costs,(ii) intraday reserves requirements, and (iii) imperfect substitutability between repo and bank deposits. Our model highlights the critical role of both sides of the central bank’s balance sheet as well as agents’ anticipation of shocks and policy interventions in matching observed market dynamics.
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The Eurosystem’s exploratory work on new technologies for wholesale central bank money settlement
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Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication
This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.
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A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area
This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in structural factors and examines the implications for the inflation environment the ECB is likely to face. It also draws conclusions regarding the enhancements that need to be made to the existing analytical toolkit and inflation forecasting.
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The international dimension of repo: five new facts
We analyze the international dimension of repo markets using novel euro area regulatory microdata. Our findings highlight the deep integration of funding markets across the Atlantic and the US dollar’s outsized role. Our paper documents five key facts: (1) US dollar repos by euro area entities account for approximately 40% of total volumes and are comparable in size to euro repos; (2) term repos (with maturities beyond one day) are quantitatively more relevant than commonly thought, especially non-centrally cleared ones; (3) repo markets have become more collateral-driven, involving diverse nonbank financial players and trading motives; (4) banks’ intragroup transactions form a large share of non-centrally cleared volumes; and (5) haircuts, even for riskier collateral, are often zero or negative, especially in euro trades. We show in two empirical applications that US monetary policy shocks spill over to euro repo rates and that negative haircuts arise from market power and collateral demand dynamics.
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Inflation and floating-rate loans: evidence from the euro-area
We provide novel evidence on the supply-side transmission of monetary policy through a floating-rate channel. After a rate hike, firms with floating-rate loans keep prices elevated to offset higher borrowing costs, thereby reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Using monthly data on product-level prices, industry-level inflation rates and the euro-area credit register from 2021 to 2023, we find that the short-run impact of monetary tightening on inflation is 50% smaller when firms rely on floating-rate loans. This effect is stronger for firms that rely more on working capital to finance production and when they can easily pass on higher prices to their sticky customerbase (customer capital). Since firms with floating-rate loans face an increase in their financial burden, their loan terms are more frequently renegotiated, often resulting in reduced spreads and a shift from floating to fixed rates. Overall, if firms across the euro area had a lower reliance on floating-rate loans, inflation would have been 0.8 percentage points lower in 2022-2023.
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Bas Eickhout, MEP, on the secondary objective
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Enhancing GDP nowcasts with ChatGPT: a novel application of PMI news releases
This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an “activity sentiment score” based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff projections and Eurostat’s first GDP estimate. The ChatGPT-derived activity score retains its significance in regressions that also include the composite output PMI diffusion index. GDP nowcasts are significantly enhanced with PMI text scores even when accounting for methodological variations, excluding extraordinary economic events like the pandemic, and for different GDP growth quantiles. However, the forecast gains from the enhancement of GDP nowcasts with ChatGPT scores are time dependent, varying by calendar years. Sizeable forecast gains of on average about 20% were obtained apart from the two most recent years due to exceptionally low forecast errors of the two benchmarks, especially the first GDP estimate.
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A decade of borrower-based measures in the banking union
Borrower-based measures (BBMs) are critical tools in the banking union’s macroprudential policy frameworks. They are designed to promote sustainable lending practices and strengthen the resilience of borrowers, lenders and the broader economy. Over the past decade, the adoption of BBMs has significantly increased across countries in the banking union, likely reflecting their effectiveness. This article reviews ten years of experience with the implementation of BBMs within banking union countries, with a view to facilitating peer learning and providing a comprehensive overview of BBM strategies and applications.
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Residential real estate (RRE) lending standards: determinants and financial stability implications
This article looks into residential real estate (RRE) lending standards, focusing on their key determinants and assessing the implications of loose lending standards for financial stability and the real economy. Two key insights emerge. First, lending standards tend to be procyclical – i.e., they become looser during economic upturns and tighter during downturns. Second, loose lending standards amplify the effects of negative housing market shocks on the real economy and heighten financial stability risks via an increase in the probability of default of households.
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Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2025
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Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations from 5 February to 22 April 2025
This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the first and second reserve maintenance periods of 2025, from 5Â February to 22 April 2025.
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Where do we stand with inflationary pressures arising from price resetting?
Euro area services inflation has been persistent owing to a combination of factors, including a delayed response of some services prices to past shocks. This, in part, reflects staggered price setting, as the price changes of a large share of the services basket take place in just one or two months of the year. This box identifies the services items with such pricing patterns and shows that the inflation rate of services items with an annual repricing pattern responded to the past inflationary shocks with some lag. This response has been protracted and at the beginning of 2025 inflation was still high for the identified items with an annual repricing pattern, especially administered items. However, the price adjustment to past shocks for these items should now be largely completed.
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The outlook for euro area business investment – findings from an ECB survey of large firms
This box summarises the findings of a recent ECB survey of leading non-financial companies on the outlook for business investment. The responding firms anticipate more subdued euro area investment growth over the next three years but increasing investment in other advanced economies and emerging markets. The responses suggest that, among major recent developments, technological change is the most important factor influencing investment strategies. Future growth in euro area investment is expected to be focused in particular on intangibles (especially IT, software and databases), while low profitability and a weak demand outlook top the list of constraints on euro area investment. Respondents widely perceived anticipated increased defence spending as a potential catalyst for investment, while fewer perceived Next Generation EU funds as having supported investment.
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