| Heute: |
159 |
| Gestern: |
266 |
| Monat: |
5163 |
| Total |
1946379 |
| Seiten Monat |
23023 |
| Seiten Total |
8963028 |
| Seit: |
|
Kein Benutzer Online |
| |
|
|
Haberler |
|
ECB - European Central Bank
|
Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
|
-
Quantile selection in the gender pay gap
We propose a new approach to estimate selection-corrected quantiles of the gender wage gap. Our method employs instrumental variables that explain variation in the latent variable but, conditional on the latent process, do not directly a_ect selection. We provide semiparametric identi_cation of the quantile parameters without imposing parametric restrictions on the selection probability, derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator based on constrained selection probability weighting, and demonstrate how the approach applies to the Roy model of labor supply. Using German administrative data, we analyze the distribution of the gender gap in full-time earnings. We _nd pronounced positive selection among women at the lower end, especially those with less education, which widens the gender gap in this segment, and strong positive selection among highly educated men at the top, which narrows the gender wage gap at upper quantiles.
-
Monetary policy without an anchor
Policymakers often cite the risk that inflation expectations might “de-anchor” as a key reason for responding forcefully to inflationary shocks. We develop a model to analyze this trade-off and to quantify the benefits of stable long-run inflation expectations. In our framework, households and firms are imperfectly informed about the central bank’s objective and learn from its policy choices. Recognizing this interaction, the central bank raises interest rates more aggressively after adverse supply shocks and accepts short-run output costs to secure more stable inflation expectations. The strength of this reputation channel depends on how sensitive long-run inflation expectations are to surprises in interest rates. Using high-frequency identification, we estimate these elasticities for emerging and advanced economies and find large negative values for Brazil. We fit our model to these findings and use it to quantify how reputation building motives affect monetary policy decisions, and the role of central bank’s credibility in promoting macroeconomic stability.
-
Euro stablecoins and their potential effect on sovereign bond markets
Stablecoins denominated in US dollars have attracted considerable attention in the context of their growing influence in US Treasury markets. However, the potential effects of euro-denominated stablecoins on euro area sovereign debt markets have been less explored, partly owing to their currently limited market presence. This article explores how the growth of euro-denominated stablecoins could affect demand for euro area sovereign bonds. By determining the pass-through rate of stablecoin demand to sovereign bond holdings by way of several illustrative examples, we demonstrate how the effect varies based on whether stablecoins are issued by banks or e-money institutions (EMIs), on the composition of stablecoin reserve assets, and on the liquidity management preferences of banks and EMIs. Moreover, the net effect hinges on the sectoral origins of stablecoin inflows, which vary according to what stablecoins are, and will be, used for. We also argue that on the one hand, the deposit requirement for EMIs set out in the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) can act as a liquidity buffer during periods of stress, reducing the likelihood of immediate sales of other reserve assets, on the other hand it could also transmit stress arising from a stablecoin run to the banking system.
-
Tokenised money market funds: new technology, familiar risks?
The market for tokenised money market funds (TMMFs) – money market funds (MMFs) whose shares are issued as tokens on distributed ledgers – remains small but is expanding rapidly. This article explores the specific design features of TMMFs, including the tokenisation of their underlying assets, liabilities and operational processes. It analyses key economic differences between TMMFs and traditional MMFs, with a particular focus on their implications for financial stability. Tokenisation has the potential to enhance efficiency by enabling faster settlement together with near-24/7 availability and programmability, while unlocking new use cases, such as employing TMMF tokens as collateral. However, TMMFs could also amplify risks related to liquidity mismatches and operational fragilities. A dedicated box in this article compares TMMFs with stablecoins, assessing their financial stability implications and interlinkages. Ultimately, the net financial stability impact of TMMFs will depend on how the market evolves, how it will affect prevailing business models and how it will integrate and interact with traditional financial markets.
-
Towards an efficient and integrated digital capital market in Europe: the role of tokenisation and the Eurosystem’s policy response
This article describes the current landscape of tokenised assets, illustrating the potential benefits across the entire asset value chain – from issuance to distribution and sales. As the Eurosystem is working towards enabling the settlement of distributed ledger technology (DLT) transactions using central bank money with a pilot by the end of the third quarter of 2026, we examine key enablers and barriers to unlocking the benefits of tokenisation for a digital capital market in Europe while safeguarding financial stability. These include the need for on-chain secondary market liquidity to enable scaling, as well as adaptations and harmonisation of the regulatory framework. Based on these findings, this article highlights how tokenisation, if it scales more widely, could contribute to the savings and investments union (SIU) agenda in two major ways. First, it offers an opportunity to create a European digital asset ecosystem from the early stages, in contrast to the fragmented market for traditional financial instruments, which developed from national markets. Second, it has the potential to improve market liquidity and efficiency, which can ultimately increase the scalability and development of capital markets in Europe. In turn, this could facilitate a more efficient allocation of capital within the economy. Lastly, developing a DLT ecosystem relying on European governance and based on assets denominated in euro is essential to maintaining monetary sovereignty and strategic autonomy. Finally, this article discusses the role of public authorities – including central banks, in providing the conditions for innovation to develop in a safe and resilient manner.
-
Tokenised bonds: assessing efficiency and liquidity in a nascent market
Tokenisation holds the promise to automate the issuance process for bonds, reduce settlement times and enable more efficient and cheaper processes for conducting transactions. Given the transformative potential of tokenisation and distributed ledger technology (DLT) for capital markets and for the savings and investments union, this article investigates empirically whether the tokenisation of bonds – while still at an early stage – improves bond issuance efficiency and market liquidity. The tokenised bond market is currently still small but has seen an uptick in issuance over the past two years. To overcome the challenge presented by the limited availability of data on tokenisation, we construct a unique dataset for our analysis, primarily composed of financial and non-financial corporate bonds issued predominantly in Europe. Employing a matching procedure at the issuer-bond level, we ensure that tokenised and conventional bonds are comparable before assessing whether tokenisation has the potential to boost issuance efficiency, for example by automating processes, and to improve market liquidity by lowering entry and transaction barriers. We find that tokenised bonds reduce borrowing costs and improve market liquidity, but with no visible reduction in operational costs (all relative to the group of matched conventional bonds). Given that the market is still in its infancy, our results indicate that there may be greater benefits as the market grows. However, the future impact of tokenisation and the realisation of its potential benefits in terms of efficiency and liquidity will hinge on the underlying infrastructure and the possibility for the market to scale. Central banks initiatives – such as the Eurosystem’s explorations on the acceptance of DLT-based collateral and initiatives to improve and modernise market infrastructures - serve as key enablers that could support a scaling up of the market.
-
O brave new world, that has such digitalisation in it
This overview of the [33rd] Macroprudential Bulletin explores how the different articles in this issue speak to the opportunities and challenges presented by Europe’s rapidly evolving digital financial ecosystem. In particular, the overview explains how tokenisation – and DLT more specifically – can support deeper, more integrated and more efficient EU capital markets, noting that its benefits will only be realised safely if European policy action keeps pace in key areas.
-
Monetary policy under multiple financing constraints
We revisit the credit channel of monetary policy when firms face multiple financing constraints, a common feature of corporate financing we document empirically. Our theory shows that the multiplicity of constraints dampens the transmission of expansionary policy to firm borrowing and investment notably but amplifies the transmission of policy tightening. This asymmetry arises because, when policy tightens (eases), the most (least) responsive constraint binds. Using U.S. firm-level data and exploiting a quasi-natural experiment, we find strong support for these predictions and for our proposed channel. Embedding the mechanism into a New Keynesian framework, we find that the drop in investment after contractionary shocks is twice as large as its increase following equally-sized expansionary shocks, thus providing an explanation for why monetary policy tightenings have stronger effects than easings, a longstanding puzzle in monetary economics. Moreover, our analysis implies that the effectiveness of monetary policy is strongly determined by the distribution of financial constraints across firms and that similar asymmetries likely characterize the transmission of other macroeconomic shocks.
-
Report of the ECB-ESRB workstream on buffer usability
-
Dynamic credit constraints: theory and evidence from credit lines
We use a comprehensive Swedish credit register to document that firms across the size distribution have access to substantial borrowing capacity via credit lines. However, most firms choose not to use all available credit, even though interest rates are low compared to their return on equity. The low utilization of credit is consistent with a theoretical model in which utilization rates decrease with both real and financial uncertainty. We estimate the model structurally at the firm level and find that financial uncertainty driven by liquidity shocks is much more important than real uncertainty driven by cash flow shocks for explaining the low utilization of credit.
-
Who owns crypto in the euro area? Drivers of crypto adoption, payment use, and its interaction with fiat cash
Using a survey of 39,507 adults in 17 euro-area countries, I find that crypto-asset owners and the niche subgroup of payers have distinct profiles. Owners – typically younger, male, and financially active – exhibit mixed preferences, valuing both cash-like privacy and card-like speed. Crypto payers display a cash-centric profile, seeking to replicate physical cash’s privacy and ease of use in digital form. While standard specifications show that holding cash reserves is positively associated with owning crypto – challenging the view that early adopters reject cash –, a multiple-instrument IV strategy exploiting pandemic-related payment shocks reveals a causal sign reversal: for compliers, building precautionary cash buffers reduces the probability of crypto ownership under uncertainty. These findings (1) explain the ownership-payment wedge as driven by user profiles beyond merchant-acceptance frictions, (2) show crypto and cash act as portfolio complements but substitutes under stress, and (3) may inform crypto regulation and CBDC design.
-
Earnings manipulation and probability of default: insights from AnaCredit and supervisory
This article provides a novel insight into whether earnings manipulation signals are reflected in banks’ internal credit risk estimates, as measured by the probability of default (PD) estimates, and whether such manipulation has an impact on credit risk (point in time or deferred). The hypothesis is that firms engaging in manipulation may be exposed to increased credit risk over time, which should be reflected in higher PD values. Using AnaCredit – a granular dataset covering credit exposures from European banks between 2019 and 2022 – and financial statement data from Orbis, we constructed a sample of 4,649 publicly traded corporations, for which we computed the Beneish M-Scores that are used to detect potential earnings manipulation. This allowed us to determine the interrelation with PDs. Our results reveal a weak and negative correlation between M-Scores and PDs, suggesting that earnings manipulation signals are not fully absorbed by banks’ internal models. Further analysis shows that these results are driven by the high prevalence of firms with no earnings manipulation signals. Firms for which the M-Score effectively indicates potential earnings manipulation (8.9% of the sample) are observed to have higher PDs, which also increase further as the M-Score worsens. These findings support the hypothesis that earnings manipulation signals are not fully reflected in credit risk estimates over time, indicating that their impact – when it occurs – is deferred instead of being captured immediately in internal models. Our results indicate that the relationship between potential earnings manipulation and banks’ internal credit risk estimates is highly context-dependent and non-linear. Cross-sectional analyses by country and industry show consistent patterns linking default risk to M-Scores in selected countries and sectors. [...]
-
Central clearing and the pricing of specialness in repo markets
Repo markets clear either bilaterally over the counter (OTC) or through central counterparties (CCPs), which differ in how counterparty risk is priced. In bilateral markets, repo rates reflect borrower-specific risk, while CCP clearing pools counterparties and applies a common pricing rule. We develop a model of security-driven repo in which repo rates are non-linear in borrower risk. As a result, averaging borrower-specific OTC prices yields more negative rates than pricing the pooled borrower in CCP markets. The model predicts that the CCP–OTC specialness gap compresses during periods of counterparty uncertainty and varies with borrower and collateral characteristics. Using transaction-level data from the euro-area interbank repo market around the March 2020 COVID-19 shock, we find evidence consistent with these predictions. Our results show that central clearing dampens specialness in normal times but stabilizes repo pricing during stress.
-
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026
-
Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations from 5 November 2025 to 10 February 2026
This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods of 2025, from 5Â November 2025 to 10Â February 2026.
|
|
|
|
|
Statistics |
|
Besucher: 9177963
|
|
Deine IP |
Dein System:
Deine IP: 216.73.216.11
Dein ISP: 216.11 |
|
Haberler 